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"The best economist is an active market participant: one who practices what he preaches."  David Brady is a bond portfolio and currency risk manager who has spent several years working in the financial sector, both in Europe and the States.  "Awareness of the state of the economy should be the starting point for any investment decision.  Analyze economic statistics and judge for yourself what is happening in the U.S. economy today and tomorrow."

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Tuesday, 20 January 2009

Exports vs Imports

Trade Balance

The Trade Balance is the net balance of the international import and export of goods and services to and from this country. The importance of this number has changed over the years, but it has taken center stage recently due to the massive increase in the current account deficit, of which it constitutes a significant portion. Although
a higher trade deficit a deficit implies that total imports exceed exports) might appear to be a negative event (it is for the dollar), it is not as bad if exports are simply accelerating at a slower pace than imports. This indicates that the domestic consumer is spending more on imports but that domestic industry is also exporting more. Therefore, it is as important to look at the performance of both imports and exports as well as the overall balance itself.

Market Effect (Dollar): Moderate - Strong (Currently)
Indicator of Economic Conditions: Weak